After the Rwandan Genocide in 1994, which caused the country’s agricultural economy to falter in its production and success, Rwanda slowly began to rebuild. Women-owned cooperatives, groups of female farmers supporting one another on small farms, began to increase in number and size as women were allowed to own and work on land after the genocide. But now, just as Rwanda is becoming a larger force in the world’s economy by supplying crops overseas, the country faces an immense threat: Climate Change.
Rwanda’s geography as a rural, open country with a moderate climate and large amounts of rainfall makes the country unique in its ability to produce crops. But it also makes it incredibly vulnerable to shifts in temperature and precipitation- because of the country’s reliance on agriculture for its economic success, climate change effects would yield incredible consequences for the success and stability of the country as a whole. Rwanda is in a unique position, because it ranks 185 out of 188 countries for per capita GHG emissions, contributing only .01% of global carbon emissions. However, it is the 29th most vulnerable country and the 94th least ready, according to the Rwanda Climate report. So although the country contributes very little to the growing global climate crisis, it has felt and will continue to feel the worsening effects.
Rwanda’s regions vary wildly in climate and land type. As a result, the many different regions experience the effects of climate change in different ways, including through increased temperatures, heavier rainfall and monsoons, and droughts resulting from intensified dry seasons.
Currently, Rwanda’s rainfall falls into four seasons: a short wet season (Sept-Nov), a short dry season (Dec-Feb), a long wet season (Mar-May) and a long dry season (Jun-Aug), and the average temperature rests between 15-17° C in high altitude regions and 30-35° C in low areas and valleys. The predictable seasons and climate in Rwanda that has previously allowed for success in crop growth are becoming less reliable due to climate change; rainy seasons are growing shorter and much more intense, leading to erosion risks in the highlands and flooding risks in the lowlands. Additionally, shorter rainy seasons cause water deficits during dry seasons, reducing the health of soil and plants as well as the farming yields.
For all areas of Rwanda, there has been an upward temperature trend, with an increase of 1.4° C since 1970. Increases in temperature throughout Rwanda subject crops to more challenging living conditions, which results in lower crop yields and less predictability in production. Additionally, rainfall variability will increase, creating deficits in some regions during the dry seasons and surpluses in other regions during the wet seasons.
Effects by Region:
1. East:
Droughts will become most prevalent in the east, as rainfall decreases and the dry seasons grow longer and longer. This will affect the plains and valleys regions which grow bananas, potatoes, and legumes, effectively decreasing crop yields by creating harsher environments.
2. North/South:
Flooding will be extreme in the north and south, with rainfall becoming more pronounced in the wet seasons. This will affect the growing of cassava, coffee, and potatoes, as the environment will become flooded during wet seasons and arid during the dry seasons.
3. Mountainous Regions:
Additionally, the more mountainous regions in the west, which grow tea and coffee, are subject to erosion and landslides from the excess rainfall.
Humanitarian Effects:
These changes in climates will have consequences for the communities and towns in Rwanda as well. In rural Rwanda, most of the population survives through subsistence farming and local cash crop farming, meaning that what they grow is what allows them to directly eat or make money for food. As climate change and climate instability increases, the livelihood of farmers in Rwanda is put at risk.
Much of the water supply in Rwanda’s rural villages is dependent on consistent and predictable rainfall, which will become less and less reliable as the effects of climate change worsen. Longer dry seasons and harsher wet seasons threaten the supply of water from dams and wells, and will call for changes in water management and storage. The changes in water supply will negatively affect rural farms’ abilities to grow consistent yields, as well as endanger rural populations by further limiting their access to fresh water.
The variability in rainfall will also risk Rwanda’s energy security. Rwanda’s main source of energy is hydropower, meaning that the country relies on dams to generate energy and electricity. In Rwanda, hydropower contributes 50% of electricity, making the country as a whole vulnerable to energy risks. Droughts, as well as flooding and landslides caused by excess rain, can damage or reduce the supply in dams, rendering them useless in terms of energy supply.
Communities in Rwanda can be harmed directly by climate change in several ways, including community displacement and the spreading of disease. Besides influencing crop yields, energy, and water supplies, fluctuations in rainfall, in combination with high population density, can cause the spread of disease, like malaria. In Rwanda, although government spending to combat malaria has increased in recent years, the problem continues to spread. Between 2012 and 2018, the malaria occurrence rate increased from 48 out of 1000 to 403 out of 1000 people. Malaria outbreaks are most common during the wet seasons in the low altitude communities in Rwanda. Because malaria is already most prevalent in these communities, increases in rainfall during the wet seasons and flooding in the valleys will cause malaria outbreaks to grow. Even worse, higher altitude communities are becoming increasingly stricken with malaria outbreaks as temperature and rainfall increases hit the communities with low immunity to the disease.
In addition to Malaria outbreaks, flooding in the north can cause physical displacement of communities and homes due to landslides and erosions.
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